ارزش خانه شما ۵ سال بعد چقدر خواهد بود؟

صدای استرالیا– بررسی‌ها نشان می‌دهد که قیمت مسکن در برخی از حومه‌های استرالیا ممکن است در ۵ سال آینده دو برابر شود و در بسیاری از مناطق پر تقاضا در سال‌های گذشته، قیمت‌ها صدها هزار دلار افت می‌کند.

مدل‌سازی قیمت  PropTrack که برای News Corp انجام شده، نشان می‌دهد که اگر روند بازار در دهه گذشته تکرار شود، قیمت‌های مسکن در سال ۲۰۲۸ به چه سطحی خواهد رسید.

پل رایان، اقتصاددان  PropTrack گفت: عملکرد عوامل موثر بر قیمت، شاخص‌های ثابتی نیستند؛ بنابراین نمی‌توان گفت که این پیش‌بینی صد درصد محقق خواهد شد. اما باید توجه داشت که بسیاری از عوامل موثر بر رشد قیمت در یک دهه گذشته، پابرجا بوده‌اند.

وی افزود: کاملا مشخص است که میزان ساخت مسکن برای پاسخگویی به تقاضا کافی نیست و شرایط بازار نیز دستیابی به نرخ بالاتر ساخت‌وساز را برای سازندگان دشوار می‌کند.

گزارش ملی قیمت مسکن نیز که در ماه آوریل منتشر شد، نشان می‌دهد که  قیمت مسکن برای چهارمین ماه متوالی افزایش یافت و افزایش تجمعی در سال ۲۰۲۳ به ۷۵ صدم درصد رسیده است.

پراپ‌ترک اشاره می‌کند که عواملی مانند سرعت گرفتن روند مهاجرت، بازار پر رقابت اجاره و عرضه محدود، آثار افزایش نرخ بهره را خنثی کرده است.

بانک مرکزی در نشست ماه می خود، نرخ بهره را مجددا ۲۵ واحد درصد افزایش داد و به ۳٫۸۵ درصد رساند، در حالی که در آوریل و پس از ۱۰ ماه متوالی، بالا بردن نرخ بهره را متوقف کرده بود.

بر اساس گزارش پراپ‌ترک، قیمت مسکن در کوپاکابانا در نیوساوت‌ولز با ۱۱۳ درصد و مک‌مسترز بیچ با ۱۱۲ درصد، بیشترین میزان رشد را در ۵ سال آینده خواهد داشت.

بر اساس این پیش‌بینی رز هیل و سیدنی نیز بیشترین کاهش را تجربه می‌کنند و قیمت مسکن در این دو حومه در ۵ سال آینده به ترتیب ۲۶ و ۲۵ درصد افت خواهد کرد.

در ادامه ۵ حومه با بالاترین رشد و بیشترین افت قیمت از مراکز ایالتی استرالیا را مشاهده می کنید:

لیست کامل را ببینید و در آن جستجو کنید

SYDNEY

TOP FIVE

• Copacabana

Postcode: 2251

Area: Central Coast

Current median: $1,900,000

Five-year change: 113 per cent

Median in 2028: $4,056,000

• MacMasters Beach

Postcode: 2251

Area: Central Coast

Current median: $2,300,000

Five-year change: 112 per cent

Median in 2028: $4,870,000

• North Avoca

Postcode: 2260

Area: Central Coast

Current median: $1,800,000

Five-year change: 91 per cent

Median in 2028: $3,436,000

• Hunters Hill

Postcode: 2110

Area: Ryde

Current median: $3,753,000

Five-year change: 82 per cent

Median in 2028: $6,817,000

• Palm Beach

Postcode: 2108

Area: Northern Beaches

Current median: $4,575,000

Five-year change: 81 per cent

Median in 2028: $8,289,000

 

BOTTOM FIVE

• Rouse Hill

Postcode: 2155

Area: Greater Sydney

Current median: $745,000

Five-year change: –۲۶ per cent

Median in 2028: $552,000

• Sydney

Postcode: 2000

Area: Greater Sydney

Current median: $1,120,000

Five-year change: –۲۵ per cent

Median in 2028: $839,000

• Beverley Park

Postcode: 2217

Area: Greater Sydney

Current median: $1,060,000

Five-year change: –۲۳ per cent

Median in 2028: $811,000

• Macquarie Park

Postcode: 2113

Area: Greater Sydney

Current median: $853,000

Five-year change: –۱۹ per cent

Median in 2028: $694,000

• Eastgardens

Postcode: 2036

Area: Greater Sydney

Current median: $940,000

Five-year change: –۱۸ per cent

Median in 2028: $773,000

 

MELBOURNE

TOP FIVE

• Somers

Postcode: 3927

Area: Mornington Peninsula

Current median: $1,628,000

Five-year change: 87 per cent

Median in 2028: $3,045,000

• Blairgowrie

Postcode: 3942

Area: Mornington Peninsula

Current median: $1,700,000

Five-year change: 79 per cent

Median in 2028: $3,042,000

• Balnarring

Postcode: 3926

Area: Mornington Peninsula

Current median: $1,450,000

Five-year change: 73 per cent

Median in 2028: $2,515,000

• Bunyip

Postcode: 3815

Area: Melbourne South East

Current median: $801,000

Five-year change: 70 per cent

Median in 2028: $1,366,000

• Warburton

Postcode: 3799

Area: Melbourne Outer East

Current median: $733,000

Five-year change: 67 per cent

Median in 2028: $1,225,000

BOTTOM FIVE

• Windsor

Postcode: 4030

Area: Greater Brisbane

Current median: $541,000

Five-year change: –۱۷ per cent

Median in 2028: $447,000

• Dutton Park

Postcode: 4102

Area: Greater Brisbane

Current median: $539,000

Five-year change: –۱۷ per cent

Median in 2028: $446,000

• South Brisbane

Postcode: 4101

Area: Greater Brisbane

Current median: $549,000

Five-year change: –۹ per cent

Median in 2028: $499,000

• Fortitude Valley

Postcode: 4006

Area: Greater Brisbane

Current median: $414,000

Five-year change: –۸ per cent

Median in 2028: $381,000

• Wooloowin

Postcode: 4030

Area: Greater Brisbane

Current median: $673,000

Five-year change: –۷ per cent

Median in 2028: $624,000

 

ADELAIDE

TOP FIVE

• Glenside

Postcode: 5065

Area: Adelaide Central and Hills

Current median: $953,000

Five-year change: 135 per cent

Median in 2028: $2,237,000

• Kensington Gardens

Postcode: 5068

Area: Adelaide Central and Hills

Current median: $980,000

Five-year change: 103 per cent

Median in 2028: $1,990,000

• Elizabeth North

Postcode: 5113

Area: Adelaide North

Current median: $295,000

Five-year change: 90 per cent

Median in 2028: $561,000

• Kingswood

Postcode: 5062

Area: Adelaide South

Current median: $1,433,000

Five-year change: 90 per cent

Median in 2028: $2,723,000

• Davoren Park

Postcode: 5113

Area: Adelaide North

Current median: $330,000

Five-year change: 89 per cent

Median in 2028: $622,000

 

BOTTOM FIVE

• Payneham South

Postcode: 5070

Area: Greater Adelaide

Current median: $479,000

Five-year change: –۱۶ per cent

Median in 2028: $401,000

• Walkerville

Postcode: 5081

Area: Greater Adelaide

Current median: $609,000

Five-year change: –۶ per cent

Median in 2028: $575,000

• Plympton

Postcode: 5038

Area: Greater Adelaide

Current median: $507,000

Five-year change: –۲ per cent

Median in 2028: $499,000

• St Peters

Postcode: 5069

Area: Greater Adelaiade

Current median: $1,218,000

Five-year change: –۱ per cent

Median in 2028: $1,202,000

• Kurralta Park

Postcode: 5037

Area: Greater Adelaide

Current median: $543,000

Five-year change: 3 per cent

Median in 2028: $561,000

 

 

HOBART

TOP FIVE

• Bridgewater

Postcode: 7030

Area: Hobart

Current median: $480,000

Five-year change: 134 per cent

Median in 2028: $1,124,000

• New Norfolk

Postcode: 7140

Area: Hobart

Current median: $460,000

Five-year change: 119 per cent

Median in 2028: $1,008,000

• Primrose Sands

Postcode: 7173

Area: Hobart

Current median: $510,000

Five-year change: 117 per cent

Median in 2028: $1,107,000

• Risdon Vale

Postcode: 7016

Area: Hobart

Current median: $474,000

Five-year change: 111 per cent

Median in 2028: $999,000

• Chigwell

Postcode: 7011

Area: Hobart

Current median: $525,000

Five-year change: 101 per cent

Median in 2028: $1,056,000

 

BOTTOM FIVE

• Hobart

Postcode: 7000

Area: Greater Hobart

Current median: $800,000

Five-year change: 30 per cent

Median in 2028: $1,037,000

• North Hobart

Postcode: 7000

Area: Greater Hobart

Current median: $880,000

Five-year change: 35 per cent

Median in 2028: $1,191,000

• Battery Point

Postcode: 7004

Area: Greater Hobart

Current median: $1,050,000

Five-year change: 40 per cent

Median in 2028: $1,468,000

• Mount Nelson

Postcode: 7007

Area: Greater Hobart

Current median: $827,000

Five-year change: 42 per cent

Median in 2028: $1,176,000

• Mount Stuart

Postcode: 7000

Area: Greater Hobart

Current median: $845,000

Five-year change: 43 per cent

Median in 2028: $1,208,000

 

PERTH

TOP FIVE

• Swanbourne

Postcode: 6010

Area: Greater Perth

Current median: $2,105,000

Five-year change: 53 per cent

Median in 2028: $3,211,000

• Glen Forrest

Postcode: 6071

Area: Greater Perth

Current median: $720,000

Five-year change: 50 per cent

Median in 2028: $1,080,000

• Mullaloo

Postcode: 6027

Area: Greater Perth

Current median: $930,000

Five-year change: 46 per cent

Median in 2028: $1,362,000

• Sorrento

Postcode: 6020

Area: Greater Perth

Current median: $1,280,000

Five-year change: 45 per cent

Median in 2028: $1,851,000

• North Beach

Postcode: 6020

Area: Greater Perth

Current median: $1,230,000

Five-year change: 44 per cent

Median in 2028: $1,772,000

 

BOTTOM FIVE

• Applecross

Postcode: 6153

Area: Greater Perth

Current median: $1,105,000

Five-year change: –۲۴ per cent

Median in 2028: $842,000

• Osborne Park

Postcode: 6017

Area: Greater Perth

Current median: $303,000

Five-year change: –۲۳ per cent

Median in 2028: $232,000

• Shelley

Postcode: 6148

Area: Greater Perth

Current median: $620,000

Five-year change: –۱۸ per cent

Median in 2028: $508,000

• South Perth

Postcode: 6151

Area: Greater Perth

Current median: $635,000

Five-year change: –۱۶ per cent

Median in 2028: $536,000

• Cockburn Central

Postcode: 6164

Area: Greater Perth

Current median: $357,000

Five-year change: –۱۶ per cent

Median in 2028: $301,000

 

 

CANBERRA

TOP FIVE

• Coombs

Postcode: 2611

Area: ACT

Current median: $735,000

Five-year change: 89 per cent

Median in 2028: $1,389,000

• Throsby

Postcode: 2914

Area: ACT

Current median: $1,135,000

Five-year change: 67 per cent

Median in 2028: $1,897,000

• Hawker

Postcode: 2614

Area: ACT

Current median: $846,000

Five-year change: 66 per cent

Median in 2028: $1,403,000

• Macgregor

Postcode: 2615

Area: ACT

Current median: $795,000

Five-year change: 66 per cent

Median in 2028: $1,316,000

• Gordon

Postcode: 2906

Area: ACT

Current median: $791,000

Five-year change: 65 per cent

Median in 2028: $1,302,000

 

BOTTOM FIVE

• Forrest

Postcode: 2603

Area: ACT

Current median: $972,000

Five-year change: –۱۲ per cent

Median in 2028: $855,000

• Bruce

Postcode: 2617

Area: ACT

Current median: $503,000

Five-year change: –۴ per cent

Median in 2028: $481,000

• Denman Prospect

Postcode: 2611

Area: ACT

Current median: $731,000

Five-year change: 2 per cent

Median in 2028: $748,000

• Gungahlin

Postcode: 2912

Area: ACT

Current median: $498,000

Five-year change: 10 per cent

Median in 2028: $546,000

• Wright

Postcode: 2611

Area: ACT

Current median: $645,000

Five-year change: 14 per cent

Median in 2028: $736,000

 

DARWIN

TOP FIVE

• Bakewell

Postcode: 832

Area: Greater Darwin

Current median: $400,000

Five-year change: 36 per cent

Median in 2028: $544,000

• Berrimah

Postcode: 828

Area: Greater Darwin

Current median: $475,000

Five-year change: 35 per cent

Median in 2028: $643,000

• Malak

Postcode: 812

Area: Greater Darwin

Current median: $525,000

Five-year change: 35 per cent

Median in 2028: $707,000

• Durack

Postcode: 830

Area: Greater Darwin

Current median: $550,000

Five-year change: 30 per cent

Median in 2028: $716,000

• Muirhead

Postcode: 810

Area: Greater Darwin

Current median: $711,000

Five-year change: 29 per cent

Median in 2028: $919,000

 

BOTTOM FIVE

• Nightcliff

Postcode: 810

Area: Greater Darwin

Current median: $430,000

Five-year change: –۹ per cent

Median in 2028: $392,000

• Larrakeyah

Postcode: 820

Area: Greater Darwin

Current median: $425,000

Five-year change: –۹ per cent

Median in 2028: $388,000

• Fannie Bay

Postcode: 820

Area: Greater Darwin

Current median: $542,000

Five-year change: –۱ per cent

Median in 2028: $534,000

• Coconut Grove

Postcode: 810

Area: Greater Darwin

Current median: $372,000

Five-year change: –۱ per cent

Median in 2028: $369,000

• Rapid Creek

Postcode: 810

Area: Greater Darwin

Current median: $500,000

Median in 2028: $500,000

 

لیست کامل را ببینید و در آن جستجو کنید

 

منبع: news.com.au